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2017年10月24日 08:14:52来源:兰州晨报

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  • Gym designers have rid locker rooms of the gnarly shower curtains, trading them in for sexy glass escape pods. They have made bathroom stalls ever more private. Comfy couch corners, Wi-Fi and lockers with built-in locks have gone from swank options to standard issue.健身房设计师已经摒弃用粗糙浴帘隔开的更衣室,代之以性感的玻璃隔间。他们把浴室隔间也做得更私密。以前,舒适的沙发、WiFi和带有内置锁的储物柜是奢侈的可选项,现在这些都是标配。“Everyone wants to get upgraded now,” said Rudy Fabiano, an architect who estimates he has designed about 500 gyms in the last 25 years.建筑师鲁迪·法比亚诺(Rudy Fabiano)称自己在过去25年里大约设计了500家健身房。他说:“现在所有人都想升级。”But gyms are still unable to provide the one thing younger men in particular seem to really want: a way for them to shower and change without actually being nude.但是,健身房依然不能提供年轻人真正想要的一样东西:不必裸体示人就能沐浴更衣。Each day, thousands upon thousands of men in locker rooms nationwide struggle to put on their underwear while still covered chastely in shower towels, like horrible breathless arthropods molting into something tender-skinned. They writhe, still moist, into fresh clothes.每天,美国各地成千上万的男人在更衣室里难为情地裹着浴巾,费力穿上内裤,就像可怕的气喘吁吁的节肢动物在蜕变成软体动物。身上还没干透就得扭动着穿上干净衣。“In the last 20 years, maybe 25 years, there’s a huge cultural shift in people that ultimately affects gyms,” said Bryan Dunkelberger, a founding principal of S3 Design, which has worked for clients like Equinox and the Sports Club/ LA.S3设计公司(S3 Design)曾务过Equinox和Sports Club/ LA等客户。该公司的主要创始人布赖恩·邓克尔伯格(Bryan Dunkelberger)说:“在过去20年或25年里,文化的重大变迁最终影响了健身房。”“Old-timers, guys that are 60-plus, have no problem with a gang shower and whatever,” Mr. Dunkelberger said. “The Gen X-ers are a little bit more sensitive to what they’re spending and what they’re expecting. And the millennials, these are the special children. They expect all the amenities. They grew up in families that had Y.M.C.A. or country club memberships. They expect certain things. Privacy, they expect.”邓克尔伯格说:“60多岁的老年人对大家一起淋浴什么的没有意见。X世代对自己的花费和期待更敏感一些。而千禧一代是一群特殊的孩子。他们期望拥有各种设施。他们的父母是基督教青年会或乡村俱乐部会员。他们期待某些东西,比如私密。”Your gym wants you to have gym buds, with whom you buy expensive carb-infested juices on site and with whom you swap tips about trainers and teachers (but with whom you definitely don’t swap spit). And now your gym wants you to feel a little more at ease in that most sensitive space: the men’s locker room.健身房希望你拥有健身伙伴,你们可以一起在健身房购买昂贵的高碳水化合物的果汁,交换关于教练和老师的看法(但是你肯定不会和他交换唾液)。现在,健身房想让你在最敏感的空间感觉更自在:男更衣室。Showering after gym class in high school became virtually extinct in the ’90s. And if Manhattan’s high-end gyms weren’t riddled with ab-laden models or Europeans (or both), there would be few heterosexuals under 40 who have spent any naked time with other men.高中上完体育课后沐浴的做法在20世纪90年代已经基本消失。若不是曼哈顿的高级健身房里挤满腹肌明显的模特或欧洲人(或欧洲模特),又有几个40岁以下的异性恋男士和其他男人有过裸体相见。“It’s funny, they’re more socially open with everything — Facebook, social media — yet more private in their personal space,” said Kevin Kavanaugh, the president of David Barton Gym.戴维·巴顿健身房(David Barton Gym)总裁凯文·卡瓦诺(Kevin Kavanaugh)说:“很有意思,他们在所有事情上都更开放,比如在Facebook等社交媒体上,但是却要求更私密的个人空间。”Not long after the invention of the idea of personal space in 1959 came a classic ’70s study gamely titled “Personal Space Invasions in the Lavatory.” In it, researchers spied upon urinals to see how long it took for men to begin emptying their bladders.1959年,个人空间这个概念出现。在那不久之后的70年代,出现了一个经典研究,名字很有趣:《厕所里的个人空间侵犯》(Personal Space Invasions in the Lavatory)。研究者们在男用小便器上安装了一个探测器,追踪男人们在多长时间之后开始清空膀胱。It takes, we learned, almost twice as long when there is a man at a urinal next to you, and about half as long as when someone is one urinal away, compared to going it alone.研究结果是,与独自撒尿相比,旁边小便器有人的话,开始撒尿的时间要延后一倍,隔一个小便器有人的话,时间会缩短一半。Closeness breeds anxiety; penis-related closeness can be overwhelming.社交距离的缩小让人紧张;与生殖器有关的社交距离缩小可能让人难以承受。“Someone standing next to you at the subway station fully clothed is less close than someone standing next to you naked at a gym,” Mr. Dunkelberger said.邓克尔伯格说:“健身房里裸体站在你旁边的人比地铁站里穿着衣站在你旁边的人更让你觉得挨得近。”“Privacy and space is kind of where it’s at,” Mr. Fabiano said.法比亚诺说:“私密和空间取决于地点。”Gyms, like black holes, resonate at a frequency. There is the chartreuse and violet and space-black thrum of David Barton Gym, and the clean white with candy red accents of New York Sports Club — a red wholly different from the sensual deep red ping of Barry’s Bootcamp. The blistering white and yellow of a SoulCycle burns the hottest.健身房和黑洞一样,是在某个频率上震动。戴维·巴顿健身房是橄榄绿、紫罗兰色和太空黑的合奏;纽约运动俱乐部(New York Sports Club)是干净的白色搭配糖果红色,那种红色与巴里训练营(Barry’s Bootcamp)魅惑的深红色全然不同。SoulCycle健身房醒目的白色和黄色最为性感。Our budget-conscious friend Blink Fitness has a funny soft blue that I can’t even hear. Crunch has the palette of those awesome Indian comic books. The wheat and marble of Equinox is like “Mussolini does the Hamptons.”注重成本的Blink Fitness健身房用的是一种我从没听说过的有趣的淡蓝色。Crunch健身房的色调像是印第安漫画书的精搭配。Equinox健身房的小麦色和大理石色就像“墨索里尼来到了纽约汉普顿海滨”。Mr. Dunkelberger believes that women pick a gym based on whether it is clean and safe. Only then do they imagine themselves in the environment. Men choose a gym more abstractly, less sensibly, more ineptly.邓克尔伯格认为,女人挑选健身房的标准是干净安全。只有满足这两个条件,女人们才能想象自己在其中的情景。男人挑选健身房的标准则更抽象,不明智,更糊涂。Now, more than ever before, they choose tastefulness. In almost every high-end locker room there is a wet door, leading to a dank troll cave. This is the steam room. But at the Equinox abutting the High Line, the men’s steam room instead intrudes: It is a glass box that presents itself as a wall dividing the sink area and shower area.现在,他们比以往任何时候都更注重品味。几乎所有的高档更衣室都设有一块湿地板,通向潮湿的洞穴——蒸汽室。但是在高线(High Line)附近的Equinox健身房,男用蒸汽室是突出来的:它是一个玻璃房,把盥洗区和淋浴区分隔开。From three sides, fleshy moving colors are visible inside. It is reminiscent of the absurd smoking chamber of Rome’s Fiumicino airport. It is a thirst trap as drawn by Michel Foucault and executed by Olafur Eliasson. It’s great.你能从三面看到移动的人影。它让人想起了罗马菲乌米奇诺机场(Fiumicino)荒唐的吸烟室。它就像米歇尔·福柯(Michel Foucault)设想、奥拉维尔·埃利亚松(Olafur Eliasson)制作的饥渴陷阱。棒极了。The Equinox on East 61st Street, two David Barton locations and the Setai Club on Wall Street have lately partnered with Glam amp; Go, a blowout bar that starts at for 15-minute dry-hair blowouts.东61街上的Equinox健身房、戴维·巴顿的两家分店以及华尔街的Setai Club健身房最近和Glam amp; Go吹发店合作——花费25美元可以获得15分钟吹干头发的务(这是起步价)。At the David Barton Gym on Astor Place, Glam amp; Go was installed inside the women’s locker room. “Our men are saying: ‘Hey, what about me? I can’t go in the ladies room to get it,’” Mr. Kavanaugh said. “So we’re talking about how to put it in gender-neutral areas.”在阿斯特广场(Astor Place)的戴维·巴顿健身房,Glam amp; Go是设在女士更衣室里的。卡瓦诺说:“男顾客们在问:‘嘿,我怎么办?我又不能去女更衣室吹头发’。所以我们在考虑把它搬到公用区域。”For the conceivable future, the all-gender blowout bar looks to be the only moderately intimate gym location where men and women are likely to mix. For a city now seemingly mostly composed of subsidized young people from posh liberal arts schools who all dormed and often showered together, it’s queer, and a little sad, to see that desires for privacy and gender segregation are still entrenched in design.在可以想见的未来,全性别吹发室可能是健身房里唯一一个男女共处的中度亲密的地方。纽约市现在似乎主要由上流文科院校里受资助的年轻人组成,他们都住宿舍,经常一起沐浴,所以,看到对私密和性别隔离的渴望仍深深存在于设计之中,让人觉得奇怪而悲哀。“We had an attempt at a coed sauna, thinking it would work well,” Mr. Kavanaugh said. “But it didn’t. I was surprised at the amount of puritanical behavior around mixing the sexes. I guess it goes to wanting more privacy.”卡瓦诺说:“我们曾设立过一个男女共用的桑拿房,以为它会很受欢迎,但其实不然。我很奇怪,男女共处时,很多人会感到拘谨。我猜是因为人们希望拥有更多私密空间。”“If there was a man in there, women wouldn’t go in,” he said. “If there was a woman in there, men wouldn’t go in. It became very strange. I’m surprised at how less enlightened we are about crossing and mixing genders.”他说:“如果里面有个男人,女人们不会进去。如果里面有个女人,男人们不会进去。这很奇怪。我不明白为什么我们在男女共用方面这么不开化。”Gym designers have waged a long battle to make the locker room not sad, not alienating and not a place that smells like butts. They treat urban loneliness and personal shame as a product problem — with a product solution. And their success means that the gym is now both everyone’s extra bathroom and extra living room.长期以来,健身房设计师们在努力让更衣室不再悲哀,不再疏远,不再是一个闻起来臭烘烘的地方。他们认为城市的孤独感和个人羞耻感是产品问题,能够通过改进产品得到解决。他们的成功意味着,如今健身房是大家的另一个卫生间和另一个起居室。The other day I visited the new Equinox Brookfield Place, where the men’s executive locker room is reached by iris scan. The perfection of all possible lighting has been achieved at the very manly locker sinks, and I spent quite some time staring lovingly at myself there. I’ve never looked better.有一天,我去参观布鲁克菲尔德广场(Brookfield Place)新开的Equinox健身房,那里的高级男更衣室要通过虹膜扫描才能进入。盥洗区很有男人味,灯光效果极佳,我长时间含情脉脉地注视着镜子中的自己,觉得自己从没这么美过。Gym capitalism works. I don’t think I’m lonely anymore.健身房资本主义起作用了。我不再觉得自己是孤独的。 /201512/415985
  • The Gan,shi Classic of the Con,stellation《甘石星经》The Chinese people have paid great attention to astronomical phenome-na since very early times. Meteor showers and solar eclipses which oc-curred as far back as in the Xia Dynasty(2070~1600) are recorded in ancient books, and are thought to be the earliest astronomical accounts in the world. By the Spring and Autumn and Warring States periods, astronomy had reached quite a high level of sophistication. Astronomers of the State of Lu obseNed 37 solar eclipl ses, among which 33 have been proved accurate. The earliest record of an ap-pearance by Halley#39;s Comet (613 ) is contained in the chronicle of Lu known as The Spring and Autumn, Annals .中国人很早就注意观察天象。古书上关于夏朝(前2070年~前1600年)时流星雨和日食的记载,是世界天文史上最早的记录。春秋战国时期,天文学已取得了相当高的成就。鲁国的天文学家在对天象的观测中,观测到37次日食,其中33次被明是可靠的。哈雷彗星早在公元前613年鲁国的史书《春秋》就有记载,这是世界上关于哈雷彗星的最早的记录。During this period there appeared specialized works on astronomy.Based on their long-time observa-tion of the celestial phenomena, Gon De of the State of Chu wrote a work titled Astron,omy an,d Astrology in eight volumes, and Shi Shen of the State of Wei wrote his As-tronomy, also in eight volumes. The two works were combined later generations as The Gan,shi Classic of the Con,stellation,s.The earliest astronomical work extant in the world.这一时期还出现了天文学专著。在长期观测天象的基础上,楚国人甘德著《天文星占》八卷,魏国人石申撰写《天文》八卷,后人将它们合为一部,称《甘石星经》,这是世界上现存最早的天文学著作。It recorded the motions of Mercury, Jupiter, Venus, Mars and Saturn,and the rules dictating their appearances.It also recorded the names of 800 stars,of which the positions of 121 have been pinpointed.Gon De discovered Jupiter s moon with the naked eye, 2,000 years earlier than the Italian astronomer Galileo,who discovered it with an astronomical telescope in 1609. Shi Shen discovered the reason for solar and lunar eclipses. A crater on the moon has been named after Shi Shen.书中记录了水、木、金、火、土五大行星的运行情况以及它们的出没规律。书中还记录了800个恒星的名字,有121个的位置现在已经被测定。甘德还用肉眼发现了木星的卫星,比意大利天文学家伽利略在1609年用天文望远镜发现该星早2000多年。为了纪念石申,月球上有一座环形山就是用他的名字命名的。 /201511/409355
  • Welcome, customers, to this column. I write articles and you subscribe to the FT and tell me how wrong I am (to be fair, some of your are kinder). Now, let us imagine you this piece, or other FT content, for free on Facebook or Google. It is a far sweeter deal, right? You get something for nothing and Big Data can bask in its own beneficence. Apply that to any amount of diverse content. Rarely in the history of human knowledge have so few offered so much to so many for nothing.各位看官,欢迎你们阅读我的专栏。我的任务是写文章,而你们的任务是订阅英国《金融时报》,以及指摘我的文字(公平来说,有部分读者还是很仁慈的)。现在,假设你们是在Facebook或谷歌(Google)上免费看到这篇文章或英国《金融时报》的其他文章。这是笔非常划算的交易,对吧?你免费享受内容,而大数据也可享受行善之乐。这可以发生在任何数量的各种不同内容上。在人类认知史上,鲜有如此少的内容提供者向如此多的人免费提供如此海量信息的情况。That, at least, is the story most of us have downloaded. In the rare cases where an entity — such as the European Commission, which is probing Google’s alleged abuse of its dominant position — raises objections, the obloquy is instant. Google, the US government and others accuse Brussels of thinly veiled protectionism.至少,上述情形是我们大多数人都曾免费下载、读到过的故事。只在极少数情况下,才会有实体对此提出异议,比如欧盟委员会(European Commission)正在调查谷歌涉嫌滥用市场主导地位,结果立即遭到谩骂。谷歌、美国政府以及其他一些人纷纷指责布鲁塞尔方面几乎不加掩饰的保护主义。If Europe could innovate like the US, perhaps it would spend less time trying to bring others down. There is a reason Google’s motto is “Don’t be evil”. It invests in ways of bringing ever more knowledge to humankind.如果欧洲的创新力能像美国一样,或许会少花点时间去给别人使绊。谷歌的座右铭“不作恶”(Don’t be evil)并非说说而已。在为人类带来更多知识方面,谷歌进行了投入。Peter Thiel, a co-founder of PayPal, describes Google as a benign monopoly. If it encountered real competition, its research and development budget would vanish — and with it the self-driving car, wearable computers, “loon balloons” beaming cellular data from the stratosphere and so on. We should appreciate the upside to its dominance. Google’s monopoly returns enable it to fund the equivalent of ATamp;T’s legendary Bell Labs, or Xerox Park, which made so many breakthroughs. Besides, the data industry’s barriers to entry are low. The disrupters can be disrupted.贝宝(PayPal)联合创始人彼得#8226;蒂尔(Peter Thiel)将谷歌描述为一家善良的垄断企业。如果它遇到真正的挑战,它的研发预算,连同它的无人驾驶汽车、可穿戴计算机,以及从平流层发射无线数据的“Loon”热气球等科技创新都会化为泡影。我们应该认识到其市场主导地位的有利一面。正是有了垄断收益,谷歌才能资助不亚于美国电报电话公司(ATamp;T)传奇的贝尔实验室(Bell Labs)或施乐帕克研究中心(Xerox Park)的实验室,这些实验室做出的突破创新数不胜数。而且,数字行业的进入门槛很低,破坏者本身也可能遭到破坏。But there are other sides to this story. The first is that Google’s chief complainants are US companies. This is not a transatlantic spat. It just so happens that Brussels has a tougher competition regime.但此事还有其他方面。首先,投诉谷歌的主要是美国企业。这不是一场跨大西洋的口水仗,欧盟委员会之所以会展开调查,只是刚好这里的竞争制度比较严格而已。Yelp, Microsoft, Expedia and others have complained both to Brussels and Washington’s Federal Trade Commission about Google’s alleged anti-competitive practices. Indeed, in a 2012 report, the FTC’s own staff recommended action on three counts against Google for conduct that had resulted in “real harm to consumers and to innovation”. Google had been presenting content “scraped” from other sites as its own. It had also been privileging its own commercial sites in search results — a clear conflict of interest. However, the FTC’s commissioners rejected their staff’s conclusions. It might have been different had the probe been carried out by the Department of Justice, as was the case with Microsoft, which was penalised on both sides of the Atlantic more than a decade ago.Yelp、微软(Microsoft)、Expedia等企业向欧盟委员会和美国联邦贸易委员会(Federal Trade Commission,简称FTC)都提出过投诉,指称谷歌涉嫌反竞争行为。事实上,在2012年的一份报告中,FTC内部工作人员建议对谷歌的三项罪名采取行动,因为其行为已经“对消费者和创新造成真正伤害”。谷歌此前一直将从其他网站“搜刮”的内容作为自己的内容呈现。它还在搜索结果中优先呈现自己的商业网站,这明显存在利益冲突。然而,FTC委员否定了工作人员的结论。如果调查是由美国司法部(Department of Justice)进行的,情况可能会不同,十多年前微软就接受了美国司法部的调查,并在大西洋两岸都受到了处罚。Not even Goldman Sachs can match Google’s lobbying clout nowadays. When the report was leaked to the Wall Street Journal in March, Google cajoled the FTC into distancing itself from its own conclusions.就连高盛(Goldman Sachs)也比不上谷歌现今的游说影响力。当FTC对谷歌的调查报告在3月份被泄露给《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal),谷歌劝诱FTC放弃了自己的结论。The idea that US regulators had in fact agreed with their EU counterparts was too dangerous. Johanna Shelton, Google’s chief lobbyist, has visited the White House more than 100 times . Eric Schmidt, Google’s chairman, is closer to President Barack Obama than any other business leader. Google even has its own “data diplomacy” outfit, Google Ideas, which is headed by a former state department official. It combines data initiatives against autocracies with business acumen to open up new markets. What is good for Google is good for America — and the world.认为美国监管部门实际上已经与欧盟监管部门达成一致的想法太过危险。谷歌首席游说官约翰娜#8226;谢尔顿(Johanna Shelton)已经前往白宫逾100次。谷歌董事长埃里克#8226;施密特(Eric Schmidt)与美国总统巴拉克#8226;奥巴马(Barack Obama)的关系,比任何其他商业领袖都要紧密。谷歌甚至拥有自己的“数据外交”部门——由美国国务院前官员领导的Google Ideas。它把针对专制主义的数据计划与商业敏锐性结合起来,打开新的市场。对谷歌有益的东西,对美国乃至整个世界都是有益的。But there are hidden costs. Ponder how Google and Facebook, are interacting with you. In exchange for free social networking, emails, s, search, satellite maps and now telephone calls, they are building your profile in ever more granular detail.但是,这其中还有隐性成本。仔细考虑下谷歌和Facebook是如何与你互动的。它们以免费的社交网络、电邮、视频、搜索、卫星地图、以及眼下的免费电话作为交换,正在以更加细致入微的细节来建立你的个人信息。Without really digesting it, we have made a Faustian bargain. They give us free computing power — beyond our wildest imagination — and we reveal ever more about ourselves. The more Google knows about you, the better it teases out preferences you never realised you had.未经真正地细细品味,我们已经做了一笔浮士德式的交易。它们给了我们免费的计算能力——超出了我们最疯狂的想象——而我们则更多地暴露自己。谷歌越了解你,它就能越好地梳理出甚至连你自己都从未意识到的偏好。It is an asymmetric exchange. Big Data has our profiles but few of us know how extensive that is. It is the information equivalent of Walmart. The big box retailer drove countless Mom and Pop stores to the wall by acquiring ever more pricing leverage. The job losses went deep, and some of the victims were customers. The model is self-cannibalising.这是一笔不对等的交换。大数据拥有我们的信息,而我们几乎没人知道其信息量有多广。它是信息界的沃尔玛(Walmart)。这家巨型零售商通过获取越来越大的定价能力,迫使不计其数的夫妻店陷入困境。失业情况加深,一些受害者也是沃尔玛的顾客。这是自我蚕食型的模式。Apply the Walmart example to the data industry. We now receive most of our content for free (like Asterix against the Romans, the FT, among others, is holding out). Producers of content are suffering.把沃尔玛的例子应用在数据行业。我们如今获取的绝大多数内容都是免费的(而英国《金融时报》就像对抗罗马人的高卢传奇英雄阿斯泰里斯(Asterix)一样,一直坚持绝不妥协)。而内容的生产者则承受着痛苦。By the end of this decade, most of the world’s books will have been uploaded to Google’s online library. The company’s sway over our culture and knowledge will be unprecedented. Should we charge Big Data for our personal data? Jeff Hammerbacher, former head of data at Facebook, said: “The best minds of my generation are thinking about how to make people click ads.” In a parallel universe, they might be figuring out something more noteworthy. But what they do brings us untold benefits. Evil does not come into it.在本世纪的第二个10年结束时,世界上的大多数书籍都将已上传至谷歌的在线图书馆中。该公司对我们的文化与知识的控制将会达到前所未有的水平。我们应该为个人数据向大数据收费吗?Facebook前数据主管杰夫#8226;哈默巴赫尔(Jeff Hammerbacher)称:“我这代人中头脑最为出色的人都在考虑如何让人们点击广告。”在另一个平行宇宙中,他们也许正在考虑更有意义的事。但是,他们所做的事带给了我们数不清的好处。这里面并不涉及邪恶。We should nevertheless embrace the bargain with open eyes. We are not Big Data’s customers but its product. As long as we grasp that we users are also being used, let the harvest continue.话虽如此,我们还是应该睁大眼睛来接受这笔交易。我们并非大数据的客户,而是其产品。只要我们清楚我们用户也在被利用着,就让大数据对我们的“收割”继续下去吧。 /201506/378300
  • The San Francisco-based buyout firm Francisco Partners recently published a delicious analysis relevant to anyone wondering about what the future holds for technology stocks. It is a bulletin in which both pessimists and optimists can find hope and it offers a helpful perspective for those wondering about the current valuations of technology companies.总部位于旧金山的收购集团Francisco Partners最近发表了一份精辟的分析,它对于任何揣测科技股未来的人都很重要。在这份分析中,悲观者和乐观者都能找到希望,它为那些对科技公司当前估值感到纳闷的人提供了一个有帮助的视角。First, the bad news. The 15 technology companies with the largest market capitalisations in 2000 have been decimated — losing about .35tn, or roughly 60 per cent, of their combined market value. Only one, Microsoft, has a market capitalisation that is higher than in 2000. One extraordinary aspect of this meltdown is that it did not occur, as some might suspect, in the much ballyhooed dotcom wonder companies of yesteryear. Instead it was a blight that affected most of what were once considered blue-chip technology holdings. In 2000, Nortel sported a market value of 9bn that, like those of its classmates, had been bloated by the enthusiasm of the era; it has since gone bankrupt. While other members of this corporate bracket have avoided that ignominy, their long-term stock charts present bleak pictures. Cisco’s market value has faded from 3bn to 4bn; Intel’s from 8bn to 1bn; and EMC’s from 8bn to bn.首先是坏消息。2000年市值最高的15家科技公司已严重萎缩,市值损失约1.35万亿美元,约占它们总市值的60%。只有微软(Microsoft)一家的市值高于2000年水平。市值滑坡的一个不寻常之处在于,它没有像一些人可能猜测的那样,发生在当年被大肆炒作的网络奇迹公司身上。相反,这种不幸落在了多数曾经被视为蓝筹科技股的公司身上。2000年,北电网络(Nortel)市值高达2090亿美元,与同业一样,该公司的市值因为当年的市场热情而膨胀;后来该公司破产。尽管其他科技巨擘避免了这种不光结局,但它们的长期股价图表惨不忍睹。思科(Cisco)市值已从4030亿美元降至1440亿美元;英特尔(Intel)市值已从2880亿美元降至1610亿美元;EMC的市值从2180亿美元降至510亿美元。For the class of 2000, the sharpest property price declines have been in the deteriorating neighbourhoods of systems, hardware and semiconductors. This is because of the continuing decline in the cost of computing, the rise of open-source software, the move to the “cloud” and the emergence of huge datacentres where companies such as Amazon, Google and Facebook are designing their own approaches.对于2000年的知名公司而言,最大跌幅出现在系统、硬件和半导体等表现日益恶化的业务领域。这是因为计算成本持续下滑、开放源软件崛起、转向“云计算”的趋势,以及大规模数据中心的兴起,在数据中心领域,亚马逊(Amazon)、谷歌(Google)和Facebook等公司都在设计自己的策略。Now a word from sunnier climes. Fifteen companies that were together worth less than bn in 2000 are now among the world’s 50 top technology companies as measured by market capitalisation, with a combined worth of .1tn. (Had Amazon been included, rather than being classified as a retailer, this number would have swollen by another 0bn). Apple, which even in 2000 was viewed as little more than a curiosity, has risen in value from bn to 9bn. A few themes jump out of this listing: the power of novelty, the shift towards China, the benefits of patience and the virtues of capital efficiency.现在说点让人比较愉快的事情吧。2000年总市值不到100亿美元的15家公司,如今就市值而言已跻身全球科技公司50强,它们的总市值高达2.1万亿美元。(如果加上亚马逊(而不是将其列为一家零售商),这个数字会再增加2500亿美元)。即使在2000年,苹果(Apple)仍只是被视为一家奇特的公司,如今其市值已从60亿美元飙升至6590亿美元。这份名单体现出这样几个主题:新颖性的威力、重心转向中国的趋势、耐心的好处以及资本效率的重要性。Several of today’s most valuable technology companies did not even exist in 2000. Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter together have a collective corporate history of only 33 years. Even Google and Salesforce were barely smudges on the horizon in 2000. These companies now have a combined value of about 0bn. Beyond some of the customised systems they operate in their own datacentres, and in Google’s case, some sideline activities such as its Nexus phones and Chrome notebooks, none of these companies sully their hands with anything as taxing as hardware. They have thrived from the artful deployment of software, in particular the “cloud based” variant, and — for Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter (and Google’s YouTube service) — organising and collating the contributions of their users.如今市值最高的几家科技公司在2000年甚至还未问世。Facebook、LinkedIn和Twitter三家公司的历史加起来也就33年。2000年,就连谷歌和Salesforce也还只是地平线上的小点。这些公司现在的总市值约为8500亿美元。除了它们在各自的数据中心运行的一些定制系统以及(就谷歌而言)像Nexus手机和Chrome笔记本等副业以外,这些公司都没有费神染指棘手的硬件业务。它们的成功来自于巧妙的软件部署,特别是“基于云”的软件,以及(就Facebook、 LinkedIn、Twitter以及谷歌的YouTube务而言)组织和整理用户生成的内容。Perched in a clump as the fourth, fifth and sixth most valuable technology companies of the day are Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu. This threesome is now worth 9bn — testament not just to how much China has progressed in a decade and a half but a harbinger of the next several decades as the country places increasing emphasis on spawning its own technology. Woe betide the management of any western technology company that underestimates the challenge posed by the vast number of emerging Chinese competitors, fuelled by an ambition and work regimen that is hard to match in Europe and the US.目前在市值排行榜上位居第四、第五和第六位的公司是阿里巴巴(Alibaba)、腾讯(Tencent)和百度(Baidu)。这三家公司目前的总市值为4090亿美元,这不仅明了中国在15年里取得了巨大进步,还预示着未来几十年的格局。中国正越来越注重发展自主技术。低估中国的大批新兴竞争对手将会带来的挑战,将给西方科技公司管理层带来厄运。驱使中国竞争对手的雄心和工作文化是欧美难以匹敌的。Finally, a note about two other themes that jump out of this listing: patience and profits.最后说一下这份名单体现出的另外两个主题:耐心和利润。Most investors in technology companies squander vast sums by reacting to short-term jitters or global jolts rather than concentrating on the staying power of those emerging enterprises on the right side of history.科技公司的多数投资者会浪费巨额资金,因为他们对短期恐慌或全球动荡做出条件反射式的反应,而不是专注于符合历史潮流的新兴企业的持久力。And for the founders and chief executives of all of the current billion-dollar “unicorns” there is another abiding message. Almost all of today’s technology juggernauts formed before about 2008 required smallish amounts of capital. Google, for example, consumed only m before turning profitable. Maybe this means that sooner or later a new class of company will come into vogue — a rare species known as the profitable unicorn.对于当前所有10亿美元级的“独角兽”企业的创始人和首席执行官而言,还有一条永恒的信息。在2008年左右之前创建的几乎所有科技巨擘,当初都需要很少的资金投入。例如,谷歌在实现盈利之前仅消耗了800万美元。这或许意味着,新一类的公司迟早会流行:它们将是被称为“盈利独角兽”的珍稀物种。 /201601/419983
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